The RBI has maintained steady interest rates for nearly two years, despite adopting a neutral stance last month. This move had sparked speculation of likely rate cuts.
However, Das said, “A rate cut at this stage would be very risky,” and indicated that easing measures would only be considered once inflation sustainably falls to the RBI’s 4 per cent target.
Inflation, spurred by higher food prices, surged from 3.65 per cent in August to 5.49 per cent in September.
While interest rates were kept unchanged, the RBI shifted its monetary policy stance from “withdrawal of accommodation” to “neutral”.Meanwhile, a Reuters poll shows a slim majority of economists predicting a potential rate cut in December.
Das and the inflation ‘horse’ are at war
Moving on from the ‘elephant in the room’, inflation, in the October MPC meet, for the RBI Governor it’s the horse which is at war and needs to be watched carefully before letting it out of the stable.
Along with same rates, what the Reserve Bank of India-led rate setting panel had also decided is to remain unambiguously focused on a durable alignment of inflation with the target, while supporting growth. Considering the balanced inflation and growth trends, Shaktikanta Das announced the MPC’s stance shift.
“With a lot of effort, the horse has been brought into the stable. We have to be very careful before opening the gate of the stable because there is every chance that the (inflation) horse will simply bolt again. We have to hold it in tight leash and have greater confidence and alignment of the inflation with the target,” Das had said during the last monetary policy press conference.
FinMin thinks otherwise
The Finance Ministry’s Economic Survey for September had said that inflation expectations in India are softening, indicating reduced inflationary concerns.
The report said that both household and business surveys by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad (IIM-A) suggest a stable demand environment, despite the impact of price fluctuations in key food items on headline inflation.
“The headline inflation rate, influenced as it is by a few food items, may not be the most accurate gauge of underlying demand,” the government said.
This is not the first time this point has been raised by the government as CEA Anantha Nageswaran had highlighted the need to eliminate food from India’s inflation framework. Earlier in its survey report for 2023-24, the FinMin had said that India’s monetary policy framework should consider targeting inflation that excludes food, the prices of which are influenced more by supply than demand.