The 96-km Suwalki Corridor — dubbed Nato’s ‘Achilles heel’ or ‘soft underbelly’ — spans from northwest Belarus to the southeastern border of Russia’s Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad.
Strategic importance of Suwalki Gap
The Suwalki Gap, also known as the Suwalki corridor is a sparsely populated area.
Named after the Polish town of Suwalki, this choke point has become of great strategic and military importance since Poland and the Baltic states joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
For the West, it is the only land link to the three ex-Soviet Baltic republics – Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia – which are seen as vulnerable to Putin if the current east-west tension worsens.
For Russia, control of the corridor would give it a land link to Kaliningrad, the main base of Putin’s Baltic Fleet, and firm Kremlin ally Belarus.
Escalation of war
As per the Daily Mail report, a top Russian parliamentarian told state television that mercenary forces were ready to march on the corridor “in a matter of hours”.
Both Poland and Lithuania are members of Nato and any Russian offensive on the corridor would immediately trigger Article 5 of the bloc’s founding treaty — “an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all”.
It remains to be seen whether Putin would take the risk of incurring the wrath of the entire Nato force, specially considering that Russian forces have been struggling to make headway against Ukrainian troops over the past few months.
Wagner forces in Belarus
The news of a possible new battle front comes just weeks after Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin led a failed revolt against top Russian military leadership.
After he was forced to turn back from Moscow, Prigozhin and his troops were “exiled” to Belarus.
Satellite images have shown temporary camps cropping up in the country to house the mercenaries that have been coming into the country by the hundreds over the past few weeks.
Reservist Col-Gen Andrey Kartapolov, now an MP and chairman of the Russian parliament’s defence committee, told state TV: “It is clear that Wagner [mercenary army] went to Belarus to train the Belarusian armed forces.”
“A strike force [of Wagner forces in Belarus] is ready to take this corridor in a matter of hours,” he added.
Poland on alert
Poland’s intelligence service has said it is monitoring the Wagner mercenary threat.
Deputy head of special services Stanislaw Zaryn said it remains to be seen how many Wagnerites end up in Belarus.